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Recent Virginia Polling Data

A Cautionary Note Regarding Polling Data

Larry Sabato, the founder and director of the non-profit and non-partisan University of Virginia Center for Politics, has the following insight about political polls:

"[S]hort-term swings in candidate preference are caused mainly if not exclusively by variability in partisan response rates.  Even small changes in response rates among Democrats and Republicans can produce sizable shifts in candidate support, given the very low overall response rates in most polls.  In our view, it is much more fruitful to focus on the electoral fundamentals and fixed elements of politics that predetermine most votes, especially partisanship, demographics, and strong forces shaping the political landscape. Polarization in this hyper-partisan era means that practically nine of 10 voters are committed, and the unknown is whether they can be motivated to cast a ballot.  Presidential job approval, the state of the economy, war and peace, and a few other items reinforce partisanship and turnout, and influence the few truly swingable votes among hard independents."

Good to know, but statewide polls provide ballpark guidance on the final allocation of electoral votes in the run-up to elections, and help identify changes (direction and scope) in local voter sentiment over time.  This is especially important in battleground states like Virginia.  Moreover, political parties, candidates, pundits and even folks like Mr. Sabato rely on solid polling data, which affects their and our attitudes, conclusions and behavior from time to time.

 

Links to Complete Polling Data

November 7, 2016 The Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University phone poll conducted on November 1-6, 2016 of 1,193 likely voters, with a 3.6% margin of error.

November 7, 2016 Hampton University Center for Public Policy telephone poll conducted on November 2-6, 2016 of 802 likely Virginia voters, with a 4.4% margin of error.

November 7, 2016 Gravis Marketing/Breitbart News Network telephone poll of 1,362 Virginia registered voters conducted on November 1-4, 2016, with a 2.7% margin of error.

November 6, 2016 Remington Research Group phone poll conducted on November 1-2, 2016 of 3,076 likely voters, with a 1.8% margin of error.

November 4, 2016 Public Policy Polling phone poll conducted on November 3-4, 2016 of 1,238 likely voters, with a 2.8% margin of error.

November 4, 2016 Roanoke College poll conducted on October 29-November 1, 2016 of 654 likely Virginia voters, with a 3.8% margin of error.

November 3, 2016 Remington Research Group phone poll conducted on October 30, 2016 of 1,106 likely voters, with a 2.9% margin of error.

November 1, 2016 Emerson College poll conducted on October 28-30, 2016 of 800 likely Virginia voters, with a 3.4% margin of error.

November 1, 2016 Washington Post/Schar School poll conducted on October 27-30, 2016 of 1,024 likely Virginia voters, with a 3.5% margin of error.

November 1, 2016 Winthrop University poll conducted on October 23-30, 2016 of 712 likely Virginia voters, with a 3.6% margin of error.

October 28, 2016 The Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University phone poll conducted on October 23-26, 2016 of 814 likely voters, with a 4.2% margin of error.

September 27, 2016 Quinnipiac University phone poll conducted on September 20-26, 2016 of 749 likely voters, with a 3.6% margin of error.

October 25, 2016 Remington Research Group phone poll conducted on October 20-22, 2016 of 1,787 likely voters, with a 2.3% margin of error.

October 21, 2016 The Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University phone poll conducted on October 16-19, 2016 of 834 likely voters, with a 3.9% margin of error.

October 18, 2016 Washington Post/Survey Monkey online poll conducted on October 8-16, 2016 of 17,379 likely voters in 15 battleground states, including between 569 and 1,702 respondents in each state.  In Virginia, 1,644 likely voters were polled.  Acccording to the Washington Post, "The final sample was weighted to benchmarks for the population of registred voters in each state for age, race, sex, education and region from the 2012 and 2014 Cureent Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement.  State samples were also weighted to an average of party identification in weighted SurveyMonkey state surveys this year"  There is no stated margin of sampling error, since this is a non-probability poll and margins of error is "only applicable to randomly sampled surveys."

October 18, 2016 Virginia Chamber of Commerce/The Tarrance Group poll conducted on October 12-15, 2016 of 500 likely Virginia voters, with a 4.1% margin of error.

October 11, 2016 Roanoke College poll conducted on October 2-6, 2016 of 814 likely Virginia voters, with a 3.5% margin of error.

October 8, 2016 Hampton University Center for Public Policy telephone survey conducted on September 28-October 2, 2016 of 801 likely Virginia voters, with a 4.4% margin of error.

October 3, 2016 The Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University phone poll conducted on September 27-30, 2016 of 892 likely voters, with a 3.7% margin of error.

September 29, 2016 Public Policy Polling phone poll conducted on September 27-28, 2016 of 811 likely voters, with a 3.4% margin of error.

September 26, 2016 The Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University phone poll conducted on September 15-23, 2016 of 1,003 likely voters, with a 3.9% margin of error.

September 25, 2016 CBS News/You Gov phone poll conducted on September 21-23, 2016 of 1,237 likely voters, with a 3.3% margin of error.

September 22, 2016 The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College phone poll conducted on September 11-20, 2016 of 841 likely voters, with a 3.4% margin of error.

September 22, 2016 Quinnipiac University phone poll conducted on September 13-21, 2016 of 659 likely voters, with a 3.8% margin of error.

September 15, 2016 University of Mary Washington/Princeton Survey Research Associates phone poll conducted on September 6-12, 2016 of 852 registered voters, with a 3.9% margin of error.

September 13, 2016 Public Policy Polling phone poll conducted on September 9-11, 2016 of 878 likely voters, with a 3.3% margin of error.

September 6, 2016 Washington Post/Survey Monkey online poll conducted on August 9-September 1, 2016 of 74,000 registered voters in all 50 states (excludes District of Columbia), including between 546 and 5,147 respondents in each state.  In Virginia, 2,468 registered voters were polled.  Acccording to the Washington Post, "The final sample was weighted to the latest Census Bureau benchmarks for the population of registred voters in each state."  There is no stated margin of sampling error, "since this is a statistical property only applicable to randomly sampled surveys" and this "poll employed a 'non-probability' sample of respondents."

September 2, 2016 Emerson College poll conducted on August 30-September 1, 2016 of 800 likely Virginia voters, with a 3.4% margin of error.

August 23, 2016 Roanoke College poll conducted on August 7-17, 2016 of 803 likely Virginia voters, with a 3.5% margin of error.

August 17, 2016 Quinnipiac University poll conducted on August 9-16, 2016 of 808 likely Virginia voters, with a 3.5% margin of error.

August 16, 2016 Washington Post poll conducted on August 11-14, 2016 of 888 registered Virginia voters, with a 4% margin of error.

August 12, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll conducted on August 4-10, 2016 of 897 registered Virginia voters, with a 3.3% margin of error.

August 7, 2016 CBS News/YouGov poll of 1,181 likely Virginia voters (1,200 registered voters were interviewed), with a 3.7% margin of error.

July 15, 2016 Hampton University Center for Public Policy telephone survey conducted on July 6-10, 2016 of 805 registered Virginia voters who said they were likely to vote in the general election, with a 4.6% margin of error.

July 15, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll conducted on July 5-11, 2016 of 876 registered Virginia voters, with a 3.3% margin of error.

July 13, 2016 Fox News telephone poll conducted on July 9-12, 2016 of 601 registered Virginia voters, with a 4% margin of error.

June 29, 2016 Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies telephone survey of 612 active registered voters in Virginia conducted on June 10-22, 2016, with a 3.9% margin of error.

June 16, 2016 Public Policy Polling telephone and Internet survey of 1,032 Virginia voters conducted on June 13-15, 2016, with a 3.1% margin of error.

May 26, 2016 Gravis Marketing telephone survey of 1,728 Virginia registered voters conducted on May 24, 2016, with a 2% margin of error.

 

 

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